{"id":808,"date":"2016-04-19T14:48:46","date_gmt":"2016-04-19T14:48:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/?p=808"},"modified":"2022-06-11T20:14:22","modified_gmt":"2022-06-11T20:14:22","slug":"grokking-welch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/2016\/04\/19\/grokking-welch\/","title":{"rendered":"Grokking Welch"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Who&#8217;d a thunk it? The Orioles have the best record in the American League and retroactivity is batting a thousand at the Supreme Court this Term. It&#8217;s all very surprising.<\/p>\n<p>This strange streak started back in January. In <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.courtlistener.com\/visualizations\/scotus-mapper\/629\/teague-1989-to-montgomery-2016\/?type=spaeth&amp;xaxis=cat&amp;dos=2\">Montgomery v. Louisiana<\/a>,<\/em>\u00a0the Court decided by a 6-3 vote that\u00a0<em>Miller v. Alabama<\/em>&#8216;s prohibition on Juvenile Life Without Parole (LWOP) applied retroactively. Then yesterday, the Court <a href=\"http:\/\/www.scotusblog.com\/2016\/04\/a-break-with-custom-on-opinion-release\/\">broke with custom<\/a> and released the opinion on a Monday. In <em>Welch v. United States<\/em>, the justices agreed 7-1\u00a0on the suitability of retroactive application of\u00a0<em>Johnson v. United States<\/em>&#8216;s judgment that the Armed Career Criminal Act&#8217;s (ACCA) residual clause is unconstitutionally vague. Only Justice Thomas dissented.<\/p>\n<p>How to <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Grok\">grok<\/a> what&#8217;s going on? Over at the <em>Sentencing Law and Policy Blog<\/em>,\u00a0Professor Berman makes a compelling case that\u00a0<em>Montgomery <\/em>and\u00a0<em>Welch <\/em>are\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/sentencing.typepad.com\/sentencing_law_and_policy\/2016\/04\/seeing-montgomery-and-welch-as-scotus-teague-make-up-calls.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>Teague<\/em> make-up calls.<\/a>\u00a0In an age where just about everybody recognizes that there are just<a href=\"http:\/\/www.sentencingproject.org\/template\/page.cfm?id=107\"> too many damn people in prison<\/a>, perhaps zeitgeist demands the Court\u00a0narrowly construe <em>Teague<\/em>&#8216;s miserly limit. Though it conflicts with my natural pessimism, I like this line of thinking. Let&#8217;s look a little closer.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_810\" style=\"width: 1164px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.courtlistener.com\/visualizations\/scotus-mapper\/275\/taylor-1990-to-johnson-2015\/?type=spaeth&amp;xaxis=cat&amp;dos=2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-810 noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-810\" class=\"wp-image-810 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/273\/2016\/04\/Vague-Residual-Clause.png\" alt=\"Vague Residual Clause\" width=\"1154\" height=\"628\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-810\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Figure 1<\/em> above shows\u00a02-degree citation network connecting last Term&#8217;s\u00a0<em>Johnson<\/em> decision back to the Court&#8217;s first ACCA case, 1990&#8217;s\u00a0<em>Taylor v. United States<\/em>. (To see an interactive version of the map, click the image). As Justice Alito noted in his\u00a0<em>Johnson<\/em> dissent, the majority&#8217;s decision in that case is probably best seen as the culmination of a long campaign spearheaded by Justice Scalia to rid the ACCA of its residual clause. Per Alito, the campaign began with Scalia&#8217;s dissent in\u00a0<em>James\u00a0<\/em>and continued with his dissent is\u00a0<em>Sykes.\u00a0<\/em>Alito may have bemoaned the Court&#8217;s infidelity to stare decisis in <em>Johnson<\/em>, but Justice Scalia&#8217;s war had been waged in plain sight and his reasoning finally won the day.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_812\" style=\"width: 1178px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.courtlistener.com\/visualizations\/scotus-mapper\/724\/teague-1989-to-welch-2016\/?type=spaeth&amp;xaxis=time&amp;dos=2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-812 noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-812\" class=\"wp-image-812 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/273\/2016\/04\/Welch.png\" alt=\"Welch\" width=\"1168\" height=\"633\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-812\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 2<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Figure 2<\/em> shows the 2-degree citation network connection\u00a0<em>Welch<\/em> back to\u00a0<em>Teague<\/em>. This means that is shows all the cases cited in\u00a0<em>Welch<\/em> that in turn cited\u00a0<em>Teague.<\/em> (Once again, you can view an interactive version of the map by clicking the image). Though Justice Alito dissented in\u00a0<em>Johnson<\/em>, he did not do so in\u00a0<em>Welch.<\/em> This is interesting to me because Alito \u00a0joined Justice Scalia&#8217;s dissent in <em>Montgomery\u00a0<\/em>decrying retroactive application of\u00a0<em>Miller. <\/em>And<em>\u00a0<\/em>Justice Thomas dissented from the narrowing of <em>Teague\u00a0<\/em>in both <em>Montgomery <\/em>and\u00a0<em>Welch.\u00a0<\/em>In other words, it appears that Justice Alito &#8220;switched&#8221; on retroactivity even though he had strong views on the incorrectness of <em>Johnson<\/em> itself.<\/p>\n<p>To me, this is additional prima facie evidence of the new reality on <em>Teague<\/em> retroactivity doctrine noted\u00a0by Professor Berman. Justice Alito professes support for stare decisis and it seems that he now respects the force of\u00a0<em>Montgomery<\/em> even though he disagreed with that decision when it came down. No doubt there are other ways to read these tea leaves, but it&#8217;s hard not to feel heartened by two retroactive applications in a row of constitutional decisions that were themselves hotly contested.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Who&#8217;d a thunk it? The Orioles have the best record in the American League and retroactivity is batting a thousand at the Supreme Court this Term. It&#8217;s all very surprising. This strange streak started back in January. In Montgomery v. &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/2016\/04\/19\/grokking-welch\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":400,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/808"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/400"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=808"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/808\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":844,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/808\/revisions\/844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubalt.edu\/cstarger\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}