Introduction to Probability and Sampling

Probabilities

A probability is a fraction or a proportion of all the possible outcomes. So it’s the number of classified outcomes classified as X divided by the total number of possible outcomes (N). It’s generally reported as a decimal, but it can also be reported as a fraction or a percentage. 

What is the role of probability in populations, samples, and inferential statistics? As we discussed before, because it’s usually impossible for researchers to draw data from the entirety of a population, they draw samples. The size of the sample affects how comparable the sample population is to the general population. Probability is used to predict what kind of samples are likely to be obtained from a population. Thus, probability establishes a connection between samples and populations; we know from looking at the population how likely it is for a specific sample to be drawn. We also use proportions that exist within samples to infer the probabilities that exist within a population. Inferential statistics rely on this connection when they use sample data as the basis for making conclusions about populations. Continue reading →